Super Regionals complete.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 27 May 2002, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Rick Rollins for the conference standings that make my "etc..." column and a separate analysis of performance grouped by conference possible, and to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from Rick's database.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 112.9,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 8.5.
The median ISR is 113.4.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Mississippi (32). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was Washington (79), although it could seem that Stetson or CSU,Fullerton were lowest in the NCAA's official RPI. [I say "could seem" since the post-9/11 travel considerations likely explain these teams being 4 seeds.] The highest ISR without a bid was Mississippi (116.4). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was Elon (107.8), well behind South Florida (109.9) and Florida Atlantic (110.3).
There is one striking anomaly this year:
Navy seeded 3rd above George Washington.
The only reason is to avoid a 1st round match between teams
from the same conference, but this could have been dealt with
by swapping a few teams between nearby regionals.
Just as odd was Stetson as the #4 seed rather than #2 (where its
pRPI says it should be), since swapping it with UCF would have
matched the pRPI better. The NCAA clearly went with conference
finish and national ranking over its own ranking.
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3), reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets.
Super Regional 1: Notre Dame 10 5 3 ==> meets 8 at Florida St 4 12 1 Super Regional 8: Southern Cal 2 3 at Stanford 4 5 ==> meets 1 Super Regional 4: Louisiana St 0 0 at Rice 6 3 ==> meets 5 Super Regional 5: Houston 2 2 2 at Texas 0 17 5 ==> meets 4 ========================== Super Regional 2: Arkansas 9 7 4 at Clemson 6 8 7 ==> meets 7 Super Regional 7: Richmond 0 6 6 at Nebraska 2 2 11 ==> meets 2 Super Regional 3: Fla Atlantic 3 5 at Georgia Tech 14 11 ==> meets 6 Super Regional 6: Miami 7 5 4 at S. Carolina 10 2 6 ==> meets 3 ==========================
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets were "officially" determined by Craig Gowens, now and forever the "Commissioner of the SWC". All series start on 31 May. The order here is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order used in NCAA listings) or the (seemingly random) east-west order used in the newspaper this year. For convenience, I give the location name used in the NCAA nomenclature in quotes along with the actual location in my listings for the one case where the NCAA got the location wrong.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc.... ==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === =============== Region 1 [Swamp I] - Tallahassee, FL ------------------- --------------- N1 * Florida St WW W 56-12 1 1 2 126 ACC champ (#1) 3 South Fla LWWL 33-27 . . 37 110 Conf USA (#7) 2 Central Fla WLL 40-20 26 23 36 110 Atl.Sun champ (#1) 4 Stetson LL 42-17 . . 23 112 Atl.Sun (#3) Region 1a [Mideast] - South Bend, IN ------------------- -------------- 2 * Notre Dame WW W 44-15 17 16 44 111 Big East champ (#1) 3 Ohio State LWWL 36-18-1 30 -- 94 106 Big Ten champ (#2) 1 S. Alabama WLL 41-17 20 20 18 116 Sun Belt (#1) 4 Kent State LL 37-20 . . 80 103 MAC champ (E#2) ===> Super Regional 1: Notre Dame 10 5 3 ==> meets 8 at Florida St 4 12 1 ========================== Region 2 [East I] - Clemson, SC ----------------- ----------- N1 * Clemson WW W 47-14 7 5 1 125 ACC (#4) 2 E. Carolina WLWL 41-18-1 27 -- 33 115 Conf USA champ (#6) 4 Ga. Southern LWL 38-23 . . 92 105 Southern champ ($4) 3 Elon LL 34-21 . . 45 108 Big South (#2) Region 2a [Midwest II] - Wichita, KS ---------------------- ----------- 3 * Arkansas WW W 31-26 . . 35 113 SEC (W5,8) 4 Oral Roberts WLWL 46-17 . . 141 108 Mid-Cont. champ (#1) 1 Wichita St LWL 46-15 13 14 17 118 MoValley champ (#1) 2 Oklahoma LL 35-25 29 -- 26 116 Big 12 (#4) ===> Super Regional 2: Arkansas 9 7 4 at Clemson 6 8 7 ==> meets 7 ========================== Region 3 [South I] - Tuscaloosa, AL ------------------ -------------- 3 * Fla Atlantic WW LW 43-18 . . 42 110 Atl.Sun (#2) N1 Alabama LWWWL 48-13 6 6 11 123 SEC champ (E1,2) 4 SE Mo. St WLL 36-18 . . 93 108 OhioVal champ (#1) 2 Auburn LL 34-24 . . 34 114 SEC (W3,5) Region 3a [South II] - Atlanta, GA -------------------- ----------- 1 * Georgia Tech WW W 46-14 9 12 5 122 ACC (#5) 2 Georgia WLWL 30-27 . . 20 114 SEC (E3,6) 4 Coastal Carol. LWL 43-17 . . 29 112 Big South champ (#1) 3 Louisville LL 39-16 . . 41 114 Conf USA (#2) ===> Super Regional 3: Fla Atlantic 3 5 at Georgia Tech 14 11 ==> meets 6 ========================== Region 4 [Bayou I] - Houston, TX ------------------ ----------- N1 * Rice WW LW 47-11 2 2 7 125 WAC champ (#1) 3 Washington LWWWL 30-25-1 . . 79 112 Pac 10 (#2t) 2 Texas Tech WLL 41-18 19 -- 25 119 Big 12 (#2t) 4 Harvard LL 20-24 . . 190 90 Ivy champ (Rolfe#1) Region 4a [Bayou II] - Baton Rouge, LA -------------------- --------------- 1 * Louisiana St WLWWW 40-19 11 10 6 121 SEC (W2,4) 2 U.LA-Lafayette WW LL 37-21 . . 16 116 Sun Belt (#2) 3 Tulane LWL 35-25 . . 54 111 Conf USA (#5) 4 Southern LL 45- 8 . . 75 101 SWAC champ (W#1) ===> Super Regional 4: Louisiana St 0 0 at Rice 6 3 ==> meets 5 ========================== Region 5 [Central] - Austin, TX ------------------ ---------- N1 * Texas WW W 48-14 3 3 9 125 Big 12 champ (#1) 2 Baylor WLWL 34-24 . . 31 116 Big 12 (#5t) 3 Lamar LWL 35-22 . . 91 109 Southland champ (#3) 4 Cent. Conn. St LL 34-21 . . 194 89 Northeast champ (#3) Region 5a [Mountain] - "Tempe" (HoHoKam Stadium in Mesa, AZ) -------------------- ------- 1 * Houston WW W 44-15 8 7 8 124 Conf USA (#1) 2 Arizona St WLWL 35-19 21 21 28 119 Pac 10 (#4) 3 San Diego LWL 38-21 . . 89 114 West Coast champ (W#1) 4 New Mexico St LL 37-23 . . 90 108 Sun Belt champ (#6) ===> Super Regional 5: Houston 2 2 2 at Texas 0 17 5 ==> meets 4 ========================== Region 6 [East II] - Columbia, SC ------------------ ------------ N1 * S. Carolina WW LW 48-14 5 4 4 123 SEC (E1,1) 2 N. Carolina WLWWL 40-19 14 19 13 118 ACC (#3) 3 James Madison LWL 43-14 . . 22 113 Colonial (Am#1) 4 Va. Comm. LL 38-25 . . 62 104 Colonial champ (Col#3) Region 6a [Swamp II] - Gainesville, FL -------------------- --------------- 3 * Miami (FL) WW LW 30-26 . . 19 113 indep (#2) 1 Florida WLWWL 43-17 15 11 10 120 SEC (E2,3) 4 Bethune-Cookman LWL 38-20 . . 63 105 MEAC champ (S#1) 2 Florida Intl LL 41-18 . . 27 112 Sun Belt (#4) ===> Super Regional 6: Miami 7 5 4 at S. Carolina 10 2 6 ==> meets 3 ========================== Region 7 [Atlantic] - Winston-Salem NC (Ernie Shore Field) ------------------- ---------------- 2 * Richmond WW LW 49-10 23 24 15 113 Atl.10 (W#1) N1 Wake Forest WLWWL 44-11-1 4 8 3 124 ACC (#2) 3 Navy LWL 22-23 . . 173 92 Patriot champ (#1) 4 Geo.Washington LL 42-21 . . 59 104 Atl.10 champ (W#2) Region 7a [Midwest I] - Lincoln, NE --------------------- ----------- 1 * Nebraska WW W 42-18 12 13 14 120 Big 12 (#2t) 2 SW Mo. St LWWL 41-19 28 -- 39 115 MoValley (#3) 3 Marist WLL 40-12 . . 56 103 MetroAtl champ (#1) 4 Wis.-Milwaukee LL 36-18 . . 134 101 Horizon champ (#2) ===> Super Regional 7: Richmond 0 6 6 at Nebraska 2 2 11 ==> meets 2 ========================== Region 8 [West I] - Stanford, CA ----------------- ------------ N1 * Stanford WW W 40-16 10 9 12 124 Pac 10 (#2t) 2 Long Beach St WLWL 37-19 24 22 21 120 Big West (#2t) 4 CSU,Fullerton LWL 36-20 25 25 24 119 Big West (#2t) 3 San Jose St LL 45-15 22 18 51 119 WAC (#2) Region 8a [West II] - Los Angeles, CA ------------------- --------------- 1 * Southern Cal WW W 34-22 18 17 30 119 Pac 10 champ (#1) 4 Brigham Young LWWL 29-29-1 . . 132 106 Mtn West champ (#3) 2 CSU,Northridge WLL 40-15 16 15 40 119 Big West champ (#1) 3 Maine LL 40-15 . . 74 100 Am.East champ (#1) ===> Super Regional 8: Southern Cal 2 3 at Stanford 4 5 ==> meets 1 ==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. Several of these were obvious and proposed by many newsgroup readers, others stood out in Boyd's rankings, and some were picked just to placate or annoy regular newsgroup readers. There are none missing with an ISR of 113 or above.
This list of possible teams is of particular interest with the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams. One can compare the thresholds used in past years (where we also have RPI and ISR data) to those used with the expanded field. Teams that exceed the objective thresholds in the pseudo-RPI and ISR which lead me to think they deserve consideration are flagged in the table below. However, it is important to note that these numeric scores from computer rating formulae are not the only criteria used by the selection committee, nor should they be the only criteria used.
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here.
Examination of the 2001 seeds showed that conference finish was undoubtedly the reason every team with a pseudo-RPI high enough to make the field strictly by the numbers (those marked with an "*") was left out by the committee. This is clearly the case for Mississippi (9th in conference, did not qualify for conference tournament) and NC State (7th in conference), and probably for Delaware () as well.
??? ..... was clearly the last team added to the field.
... RPI analysis NOT EVEN STARTED ...
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate) ---------- Record Polls Boyd Nation Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc.... ==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === =============== X* Mississippi 37-19 . . 32 116 SEC (W6,9) X Texas A & M 35-23 . . 53 115 Big 12 (#8) X Oklahoma St 37-21 . . 46 114 Big 12 (#5) X Arizona 30-22 . . 68 113 Pac 10 (#8) Northwestern St 41-16 . . 60 113 Southland (#1) Oregon St 31-20 . . 88 113 Pac 10 (#5) Mississippi St 34-23-1 . . 50 113 SEC (W4,7) Fresno St 29-27 . . 73 113 WAC (#3) San Diego St 43-21 . . 86 113 Mtn West (#1) So. Mississippi 36-21 . . 55 112 Conf USA (#4) SW Texas St 36-23 . . 57 112 Southland (#6) TCU 30-28 . . 47 111 Conf USA (#3) W. Kentucky 38-19 . . 67 110 Sun Belt (#3) Tennessee 27-28 . . 52 110 SEC (E4,10) * N.C. State 33-26 . . 38 109 ACC (#7) U.N.C.-Wilmington 36-21 . . 49 108 Colonial (Am#2) Michigan St 38-18 . . 84 106 Big 10 (#3) Rutgers 33-21 . . 48 105 Big East (#4) Minnesota 30-25 . . 83 105 Big 10 (#1) * Delaware 35-21 . . 43 104 Colonial (Col#1t) Virginia 25-32 . . 66 104 ACC (#6) Ball State 33-22 . . 122 100 MAC (W#2) New York Tech 27-22 . . 189 91 indep (#1) Morris Brown 15-35-2 . . 286 66 indep (#3) Maryland E-S 4-36 . . 285 66 MEAC (N#4) --------------- X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 113.4 median for regional tournament teams. The lowest ISR of an at-large team was 1xx. * - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [45]. ==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============