Super Regionals are complete.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 26 May 2003, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Rick Rollins for the conference standings that make my "etc..." column and a separate analysis of performance grouped by conference possible, and to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from Rick's database.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 111.9,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 8.0.
The median ISR is 112.75.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Virginia (22). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was Pepperdine (80), although it is clear that Stetson (44) was considered equally low in the NCAA's official seeding. Interestingly, SW Missouri St (61) made it into the Super Regionals as a number 3 seed despite being a sub-marginal choice. The highest ISR without a bid was Southern California (115.7). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was Rutgers (105.5), just behind UNC-Wilmington (105.9) and East Carolina (107.8).
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3), reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets.
Super Regional 1: Texas 8 6 ==> meets 8
at Florida St 3 5
Super Regional 8: N.C. State 9 5
at Miami 10 11 ==> meets 1
Super Regional 4: SW Missouri St 13 13 ==> meets 5
at Ohio State 8 7
Super Regional 5: Houston 5 2 2
at Rice 2 10 5 ==> meets 4
==========================
Super Regional 2: Baylor 4 5 5
at Louisiana St 1 6 20 ==> meets 7
Super Regional 7: Arizona St 1 7 1
at CSU,Fullerton 5 6 7 ==> meets 2
Super Regional 3: N. Carolina 4 4
at S. Carolina 5 14 ==> meets 6
Super Regional 6: Long Beach St 1 2
at Stanford 5 4 ==> meets 3
==========================
Note: The visiting team usually bats as the "home" team in game 2.
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets were "officially" determined by Craig Gowens, now and forever the "Commissioner of the SWC". All series start on 29 May. The order here is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order previously used in NCAA listings) or the seemingly random order used this year.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === ===============
Region 1 [Swamp] - Tallahassee, FL
---------------- ---------------
N1 Florida State WLWWW 50-10-1 2 1 1 121 ACC (#1)
2 S. Alabama WW LL 40-17 28 -- 20 114 Sunbelt (#1)
3 Rutgers LWL 36-20 . . 45 106 Big East (#1)
4 Jacksonville LL 32-28 . . 69 105 Atl.Sun champ (#6)
Region 1a [Central I] - Austin, TX
--------------------- ----------
1 * Texas WW LW 43-17 8 6 9 123 Big 12 champ (#3)
3 Lamar WLWWL 37-16 22 -- 43 115 Southland (#1)
2 Arkansas LWL 34-20 . . 29 113 SEC (W6,6t)
4 Bucknell LL 27-14 . . 144 94 Patriot champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 1: Texas 8 6 ==> meets 8
at Florida St 3 5
==========================
Region 2 [Bayou I] - Baton Rouge, LA
------------------ ---------------
N1 * Louisiana St WW W 40-19-1 7 9 5 119 SEC (W1,1)
3 UNC-Wilmington LWWL 38-21 . . 48 106 Colonial (Am#1)
2 Tulane WLL 43-17 23 -- 27 115 Conf.USA (#3)
4 Northeastern LL 27-22 . . 149 95 Am.East champ (#4)
Region 2a [South II] - Hattiesburg, MS
-------------------- ---------------
1 Baylor WW W 41-21 21 18 10 122 Big 12 (#5)
2 So. Mississippi LWWL 45-14 19 12 19 118 Conf.USA champ (#1)
3 Southern WLL 43- 5 29 -- 66 105 SWAC champ (W#1)
4 Murray St LL 25-29 . . 205 94 OhioVal champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 2: Baylor 4 5 5
at Louisiana St 1 6 20 ==> meets 7
==========================
Region 3 [East] - Atlanta, GA
--------------- -----------
2 * S. Carolina WW W 39-20 15 21 24 113 SEC (E1,2)
4 Stetson WLWL 39-22 . . 44 110 Atl.Sun (#2)
3 E. Carolina LWL 33-25-1 . . 52 108 Conf.USA (#5)
N1 Georgia Tech LL 44-16 10 7 2 118 ACC champ (#2)
Region 3a [Mideast] - Starkville, MS
------------------- --------------
2 N. Carolina WW W 39-21 -- -- 16 111 ACC (#5)
1 Mississippi St WLWL 40-18-1 18 20 15 116 SEC (W3,4)
3 Missouri LWL 35-20 . . 33 114 Big 12 (#4)
4 Middle Tenn St LL 33-25 . . 65 107 Sunbelt champ (#6)
===> Super Regional 3: N. Carolina 4 4
at S. Carolina 5 14 ==> meets 6
==========================
Region 4 [South I] - Auburn, AL
------------------ ----------
3 Ohio State WW W 41-19 -- -- 47 109 Big Ten champ (#2)
N1 Auburn WLWL 40-19 16 13 4 118 SEC (W2,3)
2 Clemson LWL 38-20 27 -- 13 113 ACC (#4)
4 Princeton LL 27-21 . . 77 101 Ivy champ (Gehrig#1)
Region 4a [Midwest] - Lincoln, NE
------------------- -----------
3 * SW Missouri St WW LW 35-23 -- -- 61 110 MoValley (#1)
1 Nebraska WLWWL 44-16 9 10 21 120 Big 12 (#1)
4 E. Michigan LWL 32-26 . . 95 101 MAC champ (W#2)
2 Coastal Carol. LL 45-16 . . 26 112 Big South champ (#2)
===> Super Regional 4: SW Missouri St 13 13 ==> meets 5
at Ohio State 8 7
==========================
Region 5 [Bayou II] - Houston, TX
------------------- -----------
N1 * Rice WW W 48-10 1 2 8 126 WAC champ (#1)
3 Wichita St WLWL 47-25 . . 70 111 MoValley champ (#2)
2 Mississippi LWL 34-25 . . 35 111 SEC (W4,5)
4 McNeese St LL 31-28 . . 67 108 Southland champ (#6t)
Region 5a [Central II] - College Station, TX
---------------------- -------------------
3 Houston LWWWW 32-27 -- -- 34 113 Conf.USA (#4)
1 Texas A & M WW LL 43-17 11 11 14 121 Big 12 (#2)
2 Alabama WLL 37-22 -- 24 17 114 SEC champ (W5,6t)
4 Oral Roberts LL 41-18 . . 88 107 Mid-Cont. champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 5: Houston 5 2 2
at Rice 2 10 5 ==> meets 4
==========================
Region 6 [Pacific I] - Stanford, CA
-------------------- ------------
N1 Stanford WW W 41-15 3 4 6 125 Pac 10 champ (#1)
2 Richmond LWWL 46-13 17 -- 25 110 Atl.10 champ (W#1)
3 UC Riverside WLL 40-15 30 22 37 120 Big West (#3)
4 Ill.-Chicago LL 39-16 . . 157 98 Horizon champ (#1)
Region 6a [Pacific II] - Long Beach, CA
---------------------- --------------
1 * Long Beach St WW W 38-18 6 8 12 122 Big West champ (#1)
3 Washington WLWL 40-16 24 23 72 118 Pac 10 (#3)
2 Minnesota LWL 39-20 . . 31 114 Big Ten (#1)
4 Pepperdine LL 36-23 . . 80 114 West Coast (Coast#1)
===> Super Regional 6: Long Beach St 1 2
at Stanford 5 4 ==> meets 3
==========================
Region 7 [West] - Fullerton, CA
--------------- -------------
N1 CSU,Fullerton WW W 43-13 5 3 7 126 Big West (#2)
3 Notre Dame WLWL 43-16 26 -- 46 108 Big East champ (#3)
4 San Diego LWL 31-28 . . 143 109 West Coast champ (W#1)
2 Arizona LL 35-21 25 25 28 117 Pac 10 (#4)
Region 7a [Mountain] - Tempe, AZ
-------------------- ---------
1 * Arizona St WW W 50-12 4 5 18 123 Pac 10 (#2)
2 UNLV LWWL 45-15 20 15 36 118 Mtn West champ (#1)
3 New Mexico St WLL 42-16 . . 51 111 Sunbelt (#2t)
4 Cent. Conn. St LL 31-15-2 . . 178 92 Northeast champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 7: Arizona St 1 7 1
at CSU,Fullerton 5 6 7 ==> meets 2
==========================
Region 8 [Atlantic I] - Coral Gables, FL
--------------------- ----------------
N1 Miami WW LW 39-14-1 13 16 3 117 indep (#1)
3 Florida LWWWL 34-19-1 . . 32 111 SEC (E3,9)
2 Fla Atlantic WLL 46-14 14 17 23 114 Atl.Sun (#1)
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 30-26 . . 106 99 MEAC champ (S#1)
Region 8a [Atlantic II] - Wilson, NC
----------------------- ----------
1 * N.C. State WW W 42-16 12 14 11 116 ACC (#3)
3 W. Carolina LWWL 41-19 . . 54 109 Southern champ (#1)
2 Va.Commonwealth WLL 45-11 -- 19 30 110 Colonial champ (Col#1)
4 Le Moyne LL 33-15 . . 121 98 MetroAtl champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 8: N.C. State 9 5
at Miami 10 11 ==> meets 1
==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. Most of these teams do not, in my opinion, belong in the tournament; they are included to help put the tournament field in perspective. They can also be used to compare this year's criteria to that used in previous seasons where p-RPI and ISR data are available.
All teams with an ISR of 112 or above are included, as are all teams with a high RPI. Teams that exceed the objective thresholds in the pseudo-RPI and ISR, where you might think they deserve consideration for inclusion as at-large teams, are flagged in the table below. However, it is important to note that these numeric scores from computer rating formulae are not the only criteria used by the selection committee, nor should they be the only criteria used.
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here. Examination of past seeding decisions supports the statement made by the NCAA, and suggests that a team's regular-season conference standing is usually enough to understand why teams with a pseudo-RPI high enough to make the field strictly by the numbers (those marked with an "*") were left out by the selection committee.
Conference finish was undoubtedly the reason that Virginia (pRPI=22), 6th of 9 in the ACC, and Georgia (39), 11th of 16 in the SEC, did not get in. It would also explain taking Washington (72), 3rd in the Pac 10 conference, over So. California (40), 5th in the conference. (This choice in the Pac-10 is also supported by ISR ranking of these two teams, but one would definitely argue that USC deserved a shot when compared to Pepperdine.)
Pepperdine (80), one of two at-large teams given a 4th seed, was clearly the last team added to the field and performed accordingly. In contrast, Stetson (44), the other 4th-seeded at-large team, made it to the championship game in Region 3 after knocking off one of the national seeds.
The other factor that comes into play is conference tournament upsets. When a lower ranked team wins the conference tournament, as was the case in the Southland and Big East conferences, including the regular-season champ as an at-large team will often eliminate a slot for the #2 team.
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === ===============
X* So.Cal. 28-28 . . 40 116 Pac 10 (#5)
X* Texas-Arlington 37-25 . . 42 114 Southland (#3)
X Nevada 32-24 . . 58 114 WAC (#2)
X California 28-27 . . 62 114 Pac 10 (#7)
UCLA 28-31 . . 60 112 Pac 10 (#6)
TCU 35-22 . . 68 112 Conf.USA (#2) *** ?
Oklahoma St 34-24 . . 50 112 Big 12 (#6)
SW Texas St 30-28 . . 63 111 Southland (#2)
* Georgia 29-26 . . 39 109 SEC (E5,11)
* Virginia 29-25 . . 22 109 ACC (#6)
U.LA.La 30-30 . . 49 108 Sunbelt (#2t)
* Florida Intl 36-23 . . 41 107 Sun Belt (#5)
Vanderbilt 27-28 . . 73 106 SEC (E2,6t) *** ?
* West Virginia 36-19 . . 38 105 Big East (#2)
Pace 9-39 . . 253 80 indep (#11)
Morris Brown 10-33 . . 286 71 indep (#9)
Maryland E-S 5-33 . . 287 66 MEAC (N#3)
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 112.8
median for regional tournament teams. The lowest ISR of an
at-large team was 106.
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [45].
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============