Super Regionals are over.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 31 May 2004, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Rick Rollins for the conference standings that make my "etc..." column and a separate analysis of performance grouped by conference possible, and to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from Rick's database.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 111.9,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 9.7.
The median ISR is 114.4.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Nebraska (29). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was Middle Tenn. St (59), and it is clear that MTSU was also lowest in the NCAA's official RPI. Others with poor RPI's are St. John's (54) and Missouri (53). The highest ISR without a bid was Oregon State (116.8). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was George Mason (106.8), just behind St. John's (107.0) and then Middle Tenn. St (108.9).
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3), reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets. An asterisk (*) indicates a National seed.
Super Regional 1: Vanderbilt 3 2
at Texas* 15 10 ==> meets 8
Super Regional 8: Florida St 5 2
at Arkansas* 7 4 ==> meets 1
Super Regional 4: Georgia 7 5 ==> meets 5
at Georgia Tech* 5 3
Super Regional 5: Arizona 6 4 4 ==> meets 4
at Long Bch St 5 9 3
==========================
Super Regional 2: E. Carolina 2 3
at S. Carolina* 4 5 ==> meets 7
Super Regional 7: Tulane 0 7
at CSU,Fullerton 9 10 ==> meets 2
Super Regional 3: Florida 7 1
at Miami* 8 3 ==> meets 6
Super Regional 6: Texas A & M 8 0
at LSU 11 4 ==> meets 3
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets were "officially" determined by Craig Gowens, now and forever the "Commissioner of the SWC". All series start on 4 June. The order here is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order normally used in NCAA listings).
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === ===============
Region 1 [Central] - Austin, TX
------------------ ----------
N1 * Texas WW W 50-13 3 3 2 128 Big 12 (#1)
2 Oral Roberts WLWL 48- 9 15 13 36 116 Mid-Cont. champ (#1)
3 Texas Christian LWL 38-24 . . 42 112 Conf.USA champ (#4)
4 Youngstown St LL 22-30 . . 227 87 Horizon champ (#7)
Region 1a [MidAtlantic] - Charlottesville, VA [Tidewater?]
------------------------ -------------------
2 Vanderbilt WW W 42-17 26 19 13 118 SEC (E4,7)
1 Virginia LWWL 42-13 8 23 16 117 ACC (#2)
4 Princeton WLL 27-18 . . 126 100 Ivy champ (Gehrig#1)
3 George Mason LL 39-17 . . 50 107 Colonial (#1)
===> Super Regional 1: Vanderbilt 3 2
at Texas 15 10 ==> meets 8
==========================
Region 2 [East I] - Columbia, SC
----------------- ------------
N1 * S. Carolina WW W 42-15 16 6 4 119 SEC champ (E2,5t)
2 N. Carolina WLWL 41-19 23 -- 33 113 ACC (#5)
4 The Citadel LWL 38-26 . . 82 103 Southern champ (#3)
3 Coastal Carol. LL 40-21 . . 39 108 Big South champ (#3)
Region 2a [East II] - Kinston, NC
------------------- -----------
1 E. Carolina WW W 48-11 7 8 15 121 Conf.USA (#1)
3 UNC-Wilmington WLWL 38-21 . . 43 106 Colonial champ (#2)
2 Tennessee LWL 37-22 . . 23 114 SEC (E5,8)
4 Stony Brook LL 29-25 . . 169 94 Am.East champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 2: E. Carolina 2 3
at S. Carolina 4 5 ==> meets 7
==========================
Region 3 [Atlantic] - Coral Gables, FL
------------------- ----------------
N1 * Miami (FL) WW W 44-11 1 2 1 120 indep (#1)
3 Fla Atlantic LWWL 45-15 . . 25 111 Atl.Sun champ (#3)
2 N.C. State WLL 35-22 . . 21 113 ACC (#6)
4 St.Bonaventure LL 29-20 . . 187 91 Atl.10 champ (E#2)
Region 3a [Midwest] - Oklahoma City, OK
------------------- -----------------
1 Florida WW W 40-20 28 21 5 118 SEC (E3,5t)
3 UCLA WLWL 33-27 . . 49 117 Pac-10 (#3)
2 Oklahoma LWL 37-22 21 20 24 118 Big 12 (#2)
4 Cent. Conn. St LL 41-15-1 . . 95 101 Northeast champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 3: Florida 7 1
at Miami 8 3 ==> meets 6
==========================
Region 4 [South I] - Atlanta, GA
------------------ -----------
N1 Georgia Tech WW W 41-19 5 7 10 117 ACC (#1)
2 Texas Tech WLWL 38-19 . . 30 117 Big 12 (#3)
3 Mississippi St LWL 34-22 . . 27 114 SEC (W4,9)
4 Jacksonville St LL 31-27 . . 132 99 OhioVal champ (#3)
Region 4a [South II] - Athens, GA
-------------------- ----------
1 * Georgia WW LW 38-20 10 11 11 117 SEC (E1,1t)
2 Clemson WLWWL 36-24 22 -- 17 114 ACC (#4)
3 Birmingham-So LWL 46-16 . . 40 112 Big South (#1)
4 Middle Tenn.St LL 40-20 . . 59 109 Sunbelt (#1)
===> Super Regional 4: Georgia 7 5 ==> meets 5
at Ga.Tech 5 3
==========================
Region 5 [Pacific] - Palo Alto, CA
------------------ -------------
2 Long Beach St WW W 36-19 19 18 26 123 Big West (#2)
N1 Stanford WLWL 44-12 2 1 9 128 Pac-10 champ (#1)
3 St.Johns (NY) LWL 36-21 . . 54 107 Big East (#2)
4 UNLV LL 37-22 . . 112 106 Mtn West champ (#3)
Region 5a [Mideast I] - South Bend, IN
--------------------- --------------
3 * Arizona WW W 30-24-1 . . 38 119 Pac-10 (#5)
1 Notre Dame LWWL 49-10 6 5 19 116 Big East champ (#1)
4 Kent State WLL 35-25 . . 105 100 MAC champ (E#2)
2 U.C. Irvine LL 34-21-1 . . 32 120 Big West (#4)
===> Super Regional 5: Arizona 6 4 4 ==> meets 4
at Long Bch St 5 9 3
==========================
Region 6 [Bayou I] - Houston, TX
------------------ -----------
2 Texas A & M WW LW 39-19 30 -- 18 120 Big 12 (#5)
N1 Rice LWWWL 43-12 4 4 14 124 WAC champ (#1)
4 Texas Southern WLL 18-33 . . 249 84 SWAC champ (W#2)
3 Lamar LL 41-14 . . 41 115 Southland champ (#1)
Region 6a [Bayou II] - Baton Rouge, LA
-------------------- ---------------
1 * LSU WW W 41-17 12 12 7 121 SEC (W2,3t)
3 C.of Charleston LWWL 45-14 . . 46 111 Southern (#1)
2 So.Mississippi WLL 44-17 25 22 28 117 Conf.USA (#3)
4 Army LL 37-13 . . 107 101 Patriot champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 6: Texas A & M 8 0
at LSU 11 4 ==> meets 3
==========================
Region 7 [West] - Fullerton, CA
--------------- -------------
2 * CSU,Fullerton WLWWW 36-20 13 9 20 122 Big West champ (#1)
4 Pepperdine WW LL 28-30 . . 138 108 WestCoast champ (West#1)
N1 Arizona St LWL 40-16 18 17 3 124 Pac-10 (#4)
3 Minnesota LL 38-21 . . 51 110 Big 10 champ (#1)
Region 7a [Mideast II] - Oxford, MS
---------------------- -----------
3 Tulane WW W 38-19 29 . 47 114 Conf.USA (#2)
2 Washington LWWL 37-18-1 11 14 22 122 Pac-10 (#2)
4 W. Kentucky WLL 34-26-x . . 110 101 Sunbelt champ (#7)
1 Mississippi LL 39-19 14 15 8 120 SEC (W3,3t)
===> Super Regional 7: Tulane 0 7
at CSU,Fullerton 9 10 ==> meets 2
==========================
Region 8 [Ozark] - Fayetteville, AR
-------------------- ----------------
N1 * Arkansas WLWWW 39-21 9 10 12 118 SEC (W1,1t)
2 Wichita St WW LL 47-14 24 25 37 116 MoValley champ (#1)
3 Missouri LWL 37-21-1 . . 53 111 Big 12 (#7)
4 Le Moyne LL 36-19 . . 144 97 MetroAtl champ (#1)
Region 8a [Swamp] - Tallahassee, FL
----------------- ---------------
1 Florida St WW LW 42-20 17 16 6 116 ACC champ (#3)
3 U.Cent.Florida WLWWL 44-16 20 -- 35 112 Atl.Sun (#1)
2 Oklahoma St LWL 37-22 27 24 31 114 Big 12 champ (#4)
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 27-26 . . 199 92 MEAC champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 8: Fla. St. 5 2
at Arkansas 7 4 ==> meets 1
==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. Several of these were obvious and proposed by many newsgroup readers, others stood out in Boyd's rankings, and some were picked just to placate or annoy regular newsgroup readers. There are none missing with an ISR of 115 or above.
This list of possible teams is of particular interest with the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams. One can compare the thresholds used in past years (where we also have RPI and ISR data) to those used with the expanded field. Teams that exceed the objective thresholds in the pseudo-RPI and ISR which lead me to think they deserve consideration are flagged in the table below. However, it is important to note that these numeric scores from computer rating formulae are not the only criteria used by the selection committee, nor should they be the only criteria used.
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here.
Examination of previous regionals showed that conference finish was undoubtedly the reason every team with a pseudo-RPI high enough to make the field strictly by the numbers (those marked with an "*") was left out by the committee. This is clearly the case for the three shown in the table below. ... more ...
Middle Tennessee State (pRPI=59 and ISR=109) was the only 4-seed that was an at-large team, so they were clearly the last team added to the field. They were the regular-season champ but lost in the Sunbelt conference tournament.
... RPI analysis NOT YET COMPLETE ...
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === ===============
X Oregon State 31-22 . . 66 117 Pac-10 (#6)
X San Diego 35-21 . . 72 115 WestCoast (Coast#2)
X* Nebraska 36-23 . . 29 115 Big 12 (#8)
X Loyola Marymount 32-22-1 . . 88 115 WestCoast (Coast#1)
X UC Riverside 33-24 . . 70 115 Big West (#3)
X Washington State 29-26 . . 62 115 Pac-10 (#8)
* Southern Calif 24-32 . . 45 114 Pac-10 (#7)
* Baylor 29-31 . . 44 112 Big 12 (#6)
* Auburn 32-24 . . 34 112 SEC (W5,10)
Dallas Baptist 44-16 . . 52 112 moving up to Div.I
Texas State 32-26 . . 55 112 Southland (#3)
* Houston 30-29 . . 48 112 Conf.USA (#5)
U. LA-La 34-23 . . 56 107 Sun Belt (#4)
Pace 19-31-1 . . 237 87 indep (#8)
Air Force 6-49 . . 284 82 Mtn West (#6)
Navy 14-36 . . 273 81 Patriot (#6)
Canisius 4-43 . . 286 70 MetroAtl (#10)
Maryland E-S 3-44 . . 287 66 MEAC (#7)
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 114.4
median for regional tournament teams. The lowest ISR of an
at-large team was 1xx.
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [48].
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============