Super Regionals complete (9 June 2008).
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 26 May 2008, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from his database. We also have the official NCAA RPI available. Information about conference numbers and success rate are elsewhere.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 111.6,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 9.8.
The median ISR is 113.65.
For comparison, the average for these quantities over the 10 years we have had a 64-team playoff format is 112.1 plus or minus 0.5 for the average value and 113.8 plus or minus 0.7 for the median value. Although there has been a slight downward trend in the mean from the first few years, these values have proved quite stable.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Clemson (26) followed by Washington State (42). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was St. John's (NY) (58) followed by UC Davis (52) which, as the only at-large team given a number 4 seed, was placed last in the tournament. The official NCAA RPI only differs in minor details, such as Washington State at 43 instead of 42, or St. John's at 57 instead of 58. There are no differences that would affect any analysis of the decisions made by the NCAA selection committee. The highest ISR without a bid was a tie between UC Santa Barbara and Santa Clara (116.5). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was St. Johns (108.6), well behind Virginia and Alabama at (110.2).
Comment:
The judgment of the selection committee looks pretty good in light of
upset victories by St. Johns over Texas and UC Davis over Stanford.
Further, in a year that saw what must have been the lowest ranked team
ever (Texas Southern was 291 out of 296) appear in the tournament,
two other teams from the bottom half of the NCAA had big upsets
against national top-8 seeds on the first day:
number 151 Lipscomb over Georgia,
and number 165 Bucknell over Florida State.
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team. The region names are also my own invention, carrying on a tradition that goes back to when the NCAA dropped descriptive names in favor of the boring, excruciatingly corporate scheme of naming them after the host city.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3), reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets.
Super Regional 1: Arizona 6 10 2
at Miami 3 14 4 ==> meets 8
Super Regional 8: NC State 4 10 8
at Georgia 11 6 17 ==> meets 1
Super Regional 4: Wichita St 10 4 4
at Florida St 7 14 11 ==> meets 5
Super Regional 5: Stanford 4 8 ==> meets 4
at Fullerton 3 5
==========================
Super Regional 2: Coastal Car 4 4
at N. Carolina 9 14 ==> meets 7
Super Regional 7: UC Irvine 11 7 7
at Louisiana St 5 9 21 ==> meets 2
Super Regional 3: Fresno St 4 8 12 ==> meets 6
at Arizona St 12 6 9
Super Regional 6: Texas A+M 7 5
at Rice 9 6 ==> meets 3
==========================
Complete Results:
Note: All series start on Friday, 30 May. The order here is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order used in NCAA brackets) or the seemingly random order resulting from alphabetizing them by the host city.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === ===============
Region 1 [Atlantic] - Coral Gables, FL
------------------- ----------------
N1 * Miami(FL) WW W 47- 8 1 1 1 124 ACC champ (#1 Coastal)
3 Mississippi LWWL 37-24 -- -- 40 112 SEC (#3 W)
2 Missouri WLL 38-19 14 12 39 116 Big 12 (#4)
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 36-20 -- -- 134 99 MEAC champ (#1)
Region 1a [Lakes] - Ann Arbor, MI
----------------- -------------
1 * Arizona WW W 38-17 23 23 10 122 Pac-10 (#4t)
3 Kentucky LWWL 42-17 29 24 33 114 SEC (#3 E)
2 Michigan WLL 45-12 13 16 35 114 Big Ten champ (#1)
4 E. Michigan LL 25-32 -- -- 160 98 MAC champ (#1 W)
===> Super Regional 1: Arizona 6 10 2
at Miami 3 14 4 ==> meets 8
==========================
Region 2 [Northeast] - Cary, NC (not Chapel Hill)
-------------------- --------
N1 * N. Carolina WW W 46-12 4 3 2 121 ACC (#2 Coastal)
2 UNC Wilmington WLWL 42-15-1 -- -- 22 110 Colonial (#1)
3 Elon LWL 43-16 -- -- 38 110 Southern champ (#1)
4 Mt. St. Mary's LL 21-32 -- -- 245 85 Northeast champ (#4)
Region 2a [Southeast] - Conway, SC
--------------------- ----------
1 * Coastal Car. WW W 47-12 21 17 6 114 Big South champ (#1)
2 East Carolina LWWL 40-19 -- -- 16 112 Conf.USA (#5)
3 Alabama WLL 34-26 -- -- 48 110 SEC (#2 W)
4 Columbia LL 22-28 -- -- 161 94 Ivy champ (#1 Gehrig)
===> Super Regional 2: Coastal Car. 4 4
at N. Carolina 9 14 ==> meets 7
==========================
Region 3 [Mountain] - Tempe, AZ
------------------- ---------
N1 * Arizona St WW W 45-11 5 4 4 126 Pac-10 champ (#1)
3 Oklahoma WLWL 34-24-1 -- -- 41 114 Big 12 (#8)
2 Vanderbilt LWL 40-20 24 -- 30 114 SEC (#4 E)
4 Stony Brook LL 34-24 -- -- 139 97 Amer.East champ (#2)
Region 3a [Pacific] - Long Beach, CA
------------------- --------------
4 * Fresno St WW LW 37-27 -- -- 89 112 WAC champ (#1)
2 San Diego WLWWL 41-15 6 7 28 122 West Coast champ (#1)
1 Long Beach St LWL 37-19 11 22 24 122 Big West champ (#1t)
3 California LL 33-19-2 17 20 27 122 Pac-10 (#4t)
===> Super Regional 3: Fresno St 4 8 12 ==> meets 6
at Arizona St 12 6 9
==========================
Region 4 [Swamp] - Tallahassee, FL
---------------- ---------------
N1 * Florida St LWWWW 48-10 3 2 3 122 ACC (#1 Atlantic)
3 Tulane WW LL 37-20-1 -- -- 49 110 Conf.USA (#3)
4 Bucknell WLL 29-22-2 -- -- 165 94 Patriot champ (#4)
2 Florida LL 34-22 27 -- 15 113 SEC (#2 E)
Region 4a [Plains] - Stillwater, OK
------------------ --------------
2 * Wichita St WW W 44-15 18 21 25 114 MoValley champ (#1)
1 Okla. State WLWL 42-16 10 6 13 120 Big 12 (#2)
3 Texas Christian LWL 43-17 20 18 31 117 Mtn West champ (#1)
4 Western Kent. LL 33-25 -- -- 79 105 Sun Belt champ (#5t)
===> Super Regional 4: Wichita St 10 4 4
at Florida St 7 14 11 ==> meets 5
==========================
Region 5 [West I] - Fullerton, CA
----------------- -------------
N1 * CalSt Fullerton WLWWW 37-19 12 8 11 123 Big West (#1t)
2 UCLA WW LL 31-25 -- -- 45 118 Pac-10 (#3)
3 Virginia LWL 38-21 30 -- 23 110 ACC (#4 Coastal)
4 Rider LL 29-26 -- -- 185 93 MetroAtl. champ (#4)
Region 5a [West II] - Stanford, CA (fka Palo Alto)
------------------- ------------
1 * Stanford LWWWW 33-21-2 16 15 18 121 Pac-10 (#2)
2 Pepperdine WW LL 36-19 -- -- 34 120 West Coast (#2)
4 UC Davis WLL 34-22 -- -- 52 118 Big West (#6)
3 Arkansas LL 34-22 -- -- 32 112 SEC (#4 W)
===> Super Regional 5: Stanford 4 8 ==> meets 4
at Fullerton 3 5
==========================
Region 6 [Bayou II] - Houston, TX
------------------- -----------
N1 * Rice WW W 42-13 7 9 5 121 Conf.USA (#1)
2 Texas LWWL 37-20 19 19 21 116 Big 12 champ (#5)
3 St.John's (NY) WLL 41-14 28 -- 58 109 Big East (#1)
4 Sam Houston St LL 37-23 -- -- 82 107 Southland champ (#3 W)
Region 6a [Central] - College Station, TX
------------------- -------------------
1 * Texas A+M WW LW 43-16 9 14 14 118 Big 12 (#1)
3 Houston WLWWL 39-22 -- -- 43 114 Conf.USA champ (#4)
4 Ill.-Chicago LWL 34-20 -- -- 157 100 Horizon champ (#1)
2 Dallas Baptist LL 37-17 -- -- 29 115 Independent (#1)
===> Super Regional 6: Texas A+M 7 5
at Rice 9 6 ==> meets 3
==========================
Region 7 [Bayou] - Baton Rouge, LA
---------------- ---------------
N1 * LSU WW W 43-16-1 2 5 9 116 SEC champ (#1 W)
2 So. Miss. WLWL 40-20 -- -- 36 114 Conf.USA (#2)
3 New Orleans LWL 42-19 -- -- 44 111 Sun Belt (#2)
4 Texas Southern LL 16-32 -- -- 291 78 SWAC champ (#4 W)
Region 7a [Midwest] - Lincoln, NE
------------------- -----------
2 * UC Irvine WW W 38-16 22 11 20 122 Big West (#3t)
3 Oral Roberts LWWL 46-12 -- -- 37 116 Summit champ (#1)
1 Nebraska WLL 40-14-1 15 13 8 121 Big 12 (#3)
4 Eastern Ill. LL 27-28 -- -- 187 94 OVC champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 7: UC Irvine 11 7 7
at LSU 5 9 21 ==> meets 2
==========================
Region 8 [East I] - Athens, GA
----------------- ----------
N1 * Georgia LWWWW 35-21-1 8 10 17 115 SEC (#1 E)
2 Georgia Tech WW LL 39-19 -- -- 7 114 ACC (#3 Coastal)
4 Lipscomb WLL 32-28 -- -- 151 99 Atl. Sun champ (#3)
3 Louisville LL 41-19 -- -- 51 107 Big East champ (#4)
Region 8a [East II] - Raleigh, NC
------------------- -----------
1 * N.Carolina St WW W 38-20 25 25 12 113 ACC (#2 Atlantic)
2 South Carolina WLWL 38-21 26 -- 19 113 SEC (#5 E)
4 James Madison LWL 38-17 -- -- 60 106 Colonial champ (#2)
3 UNC Charlotte LL 43-14 -- -- 50 108 Atl.10 champ (#1t)
===> Super Regional 8: NC State 4 10 8
at Georgia 11 6 17 ==> meets 1
==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. Several of these were obvious and proposed by many newsgroup readers, others stood out in Boyd's rankings, and others were included to show some of the independent teams as well as the bottom five teams in the nation. There are none missing with an ISR of 113 or above.
This list of possible teams is of particular interest since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams ten years ago. Sixteen additional teams should make room for every team with a reasonable chance of winning the tournament, and analysis might answer the perennial question "what do we need to do to get in?" One can compare the thresholds used in past years (where we also have RPI and ISR data) to those used with the expanded field. Teams that exceed the purely objective thresholds in the pseudo-RPI and ISR (and thus merit consideration) are flagged in the table below. However, it is important to note that these numeric scores from computer rating formulae are not the only criteria used by the selection committee, nor should they be the only criteria used.
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here.
Examination of past tournaments suggested that conference finish was undoubtedly the reason every team with a pseudo-RPI high enough to make the field strictly by the numbers (those marked with an "*") was left out by the committee. This is clearly the case for all such teams this year, since all of them finished below 0.500 for the season in their conference. Simple lesson: no matter how good your conference might be, if you can't get above 0.500 you don't deserve to be in the tournament. Still no explanation of 9/12 SEC teams getting in, however.
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === ===============
X UC Santa Barbara 35-21 . . 61 116 Big West (#4)
X Santa Clara 33-22 . . 70 116 West Coast (#3)
X Oregon State 28-24 . . 59 116 Pac-10 (#7)
X* Washington St 30-26 . . 42 115 Pac-10 (#9)
X So. Calif. 28-28 . . 56 115 Pac-10 (#8)
X Washington 32-21 . . 91 115 Pac-10 (#6)
X Gonzaga 30-22 . . 98 114 West Coast (#5)
San Francisco 31-26 . . 77 113 West Coast (#4)
* Baylor 31-26 . . 46 112 Big 12 (#6t)
* Clemson 31-27 . . 26 110 ACC (#4 Atlantic)
* Kansas State 29-29 . . 47 110 Big 12 (#6t)
.... xx-xx . . .. ... ..
LeMoyne 33-21 . . 138 99 Independent (#2)
Longwood 23-26 . . 192 90 Independent (#3)
.... xx-xx . . .. ... ..
Chicago St 8-42 . . 292 78 Independent (#12)
NJ Tech 5-47 . . 293 73 Independent (#13)
Alabama A & M 7-39 . . 294 73 SWAC (#5E)
UMES 6-50 . . 295 70 MEAC (#6)
Coppin State 4-52 . . 296 66 MEAC (#7)
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 113.65
median for regional tournament teams. The lowest ISR of an
at-large team was 108.6.
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [47].
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============