Super Regionals complete.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 25 May 2009, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from his database. We also have the official NCAA RPI available.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 113.0,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 7.8.
The median ISR is 115.1.
These are a point or two above the historical average calculated last year.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Auburn (33). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was Southern Miss (57), and it is very clear that there are no significant differences at all between the pseudo-RPI quoted here and the official NCAA RPI that is now being made available. The highest ISR without a bid was UC Riverside (116.2). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was George Mason (109.8), just behind Southern Miss (110.6) and Boston College (110.9).
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team. The region names are also my own invention, carrying on a tradition that goes back to when the NCAA dropped descriptive names in favor of the boring, excruciatingly corporate scheme of naming them after the host city.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3), reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets.
Super Regional 1: TCU 4 3 2
at Texas 10 2 5 ==> meets 8
Super Regional 8: So. Miss. 9 7 ==> meets 1
at Florida 7 6
Super Regional 4: E. Carolina 1 3
at N. Carolina 10 9 ==> meets 5
Super Regional 5: Clemson 4 2
at Arizona St 7 8 ==> meets 4
==========================
Super Regional 2: Louisville 0 2
at Fullerton 12 11 ==> meets 7
Super Regional 7: Arkansas 7 9 ==> meets 2
at Florida St 2 8
Super Regional 3: Rice 9 3
at LSU 12 5 ==> meets 6
Super Regional 6: Virginia 3 4 5 ==> meets 3
at Mississippi 4 3 1
==========================
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets are currently my own invention, they have not been "officially" determined by Craig Gowens (now and forever the "Commissioner of the SWC"). All series start on Friday, 29 May. The order here is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order used in NCAA brackets) or the seemingly random order resulting from alphabetizing them by the host city.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === ===============
Region 1 [Central I] - Austin, TX
-------------------- ----------
N1 * Texas WW W 41-13-1 5 5 2 124 Big-12 champ (#1)
4 Army LWWL 34-19 . . 142 99 Patriot champ (#1t)
3 Boston Col. WLL 33-24 . . 30 111 ACC #8 (Atl #3)
2 Texas St. LL 41-15 28 -- 28 116 Southland #1
** Footnote on the longest game (25 innings) in NCAA history:
Texas 020 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 1 - 3 20 3
Boston Col. 000 101 000 000 000 000 000 000 0 - 2 8 0
Played 5/30 6:02 pm to 5/31 1:05 am, lasting 7:03. A = 7104.
The winning run came from "small ball": BB, SAC bunt, WP, RBI single, K, FC.
Texas had 91 AB (24 LOB), BC had 80 AB (12 LOB).
Texas pitcher Austin Wood went 13.0 innings of scoreless "middle relief",
throwing 169 pitches from the 7th through 20th inning. "Closer" Austin
Dicharry got the W with 5 2/3 innings of work. Mike Belfiore pitched 9 2/3
innings (from the 9th through 18th) for Boston College.
Region 1a [Central II] - Ft. Worth, TX
---------------------- -------------
1 * TCU WW W 36-16 21 13 10 121 Mtn West #1
3 Oregon St. WLWL 35-17 25 -- 41 120 Pac-10 #3
2 Texas A+M LWL 36-22 29 -- 15 119 Big-12 #6
4 Wright St. LL 33-28 . . 134 101 Horizon champ (#3)
===> Super Regional 1: TCU 4 3 2
at Texas 10 2 5 ==> meets 8
==========================
Region 2 [West] - Fullerton, CA
--------------- -------------
N1 * CalSt Fullerton WW W 42-14 4 4 1 127 Big West #2
4 Utah LWWL 26-29 . . 91 109 Mtn West champ (#6)
3 Gonzaga WLL 35-16 -- 19 43 118 West Coast champ (#1)
2 Ga Southern LL 42-15 . . 32 114 Southern champ (#2)
Region 2a [Mideast] - Louisville, KY
------------------- --------------
1 * Louisville WW LW 44-15 12 15 20 115 Big East champ (#1)
3 Vanderbilt LWWWL 34-25 . . 34 114 SEC (E #4)
2 Middle Tenn WLL 43-16 -- 25 38 116 Sun Belt champ (#1)
4 Indiana LL 32-25 . . 102 104 Big Ten champ (#3)
===> Super Regional 2: Louisville 0 2
at Fullerton 12 11 ==> meets 7
==========================
Region 3 [Bayou I] - Baton Rouge, LA
------------------ ---------------
N1 * LSU WW W 46-16 2 2 8 121 SEC champ (W #1t)
2 Minnesota LWWL 38-17 27 21 22 114 Big Ten #2
3 Baylor WLL 29-24 . . 29 115 Big-12 #8
4 Southern U LL 30-15 . . 158 99 SWAC champ (W #1)
Region 3a [Bayou II] - Houston, TX
-------------------- -----------
1 * Rice WLWWW 39-15 8 6 11 121 Conf.USA champ (#2)
2 Kansas St WW LL 41-16-1 23 14 25 119 Big-12 #4
3 Xavier LWL 38-19 . . 61 106 Atl.10 champ (#3)
4 Sam Houston St LL 36-22 . . 67 110 Southland champ (#7)
===> Super Regional 3: Rice 9 3
at LSU 12 5 ==> meets 6
==========================
Region 4 [Northeast] - Chapel Hill, NC
-------------------- ---------------
N1 * N. Carolina WW W 42-16 7 8 3 119 ACC #2 (Coastal #1)
3 Kansas LWWL 37-22 . . 52 115 Big-12 #5
2 Coastal Carol. WLL 46-14 20 24 27 115 Big South champ (#1)
4 Dartmouth LL 27-16 . . 146 102 Ivy champ (Rolfe #1)
Region 4a [Atlantic] - Greenville, NC
-------------------- --------------
1 * E. Carolina WLWWW 42-17 19 18 23 117 Conf.USA #1
2 S. Carolina WW LL 38-21 22 -- 24 116 SEC (E #2)
4 Binghamton LWL 29-20 . . 176 95 Amer.East champ (#1)
3 George Mason LL 42-12 . . 40 110 Colonial #1
===> Super Regional 4: E. Carolina 1 3
at N. Carolina 10 9 ==> meets 5
==========================
Region 5 [Mountain] - Tempe, AZ
------------------- ---------
N1 * Arizona St WW W 44-12 3 3 5 126 Pac-10 champ (#1)
2 Oral Roberts WLWL 31-13 . . 39 113 Summit champ (#1)
4 Kent St LWL 42-15 . . 83 108 MAC champ (#3,E #3)
3 Cal Poly LL 37-19 26 -- 49 118 Big West #3
Region 5a [Southeast] - Clemson, SC
--------------------- -----------
1 * Clemson WLWWW 40-19 15 16 9 118 ACC #3 (Atl #2)
3 Okla St WW LL 32-22 . . 26 116 Big-12 #9
4 Tenn. Tech LWL 30-22-1 . . 118 101 OVC champ (#5)
2 Alabama LL 37-19 14 20 37 115 SEC (W #3)
===> Super Regional 5: Clemson 4 2
at Arizona St 7 8 ==> meets 4
==========================
Region 6 [Pacific] - Irvine, CA
------------------ ----------
2 * Virginia WW W 43-12-1 13 7 6 119 ACC champ (#6,Coastal#4)
N1 UC Irvine WLWL 43-13 1 1 18 125 Big West champ (#1)
3 San Diego St LWL 40-21 . . 47 115 Mtn West #3
4 Fresno St LL 32-28 . . 154 105 WAC champ (#4)
Region 6a [South] - Oxford, MS
----------------- ----------
1 * Mississippi WW LW 40-17 9 12 17 119 SEC (W #2)
3 Western Ky WLWWL 39-18 . . 44 112 Sun Belt #2
2 Missouri LWL 34-25 17 23 31 115 Big-12 #3
4 Monmouth LL 32-23 . . 177 95 Northeast champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 6: Virginia 3 4 5 ==> meets 3
at Mississippi 4 3 1
==========================
Region 7 [Midwest] - Norman, OK
------------------ ----------
2 * Arkansas WW W 34-22 . . 13 118 SEC (W #4)
N1 Oklahoma WLWL 41-18 11 9 16 121 Big-12 #2
3 Washington St LWL 31-23 24 -- 45 116 Pac-10 #2
4 Wichita St LL 30-25 . . 93 105 MoValley champ (#4)
Region 7a [Swamp II] - Tallahassee, FL
-------------------- ---------------
1 * Florida St WW W 42-16 6 10 14 118 ACC #1 (Atl #1)
3 Ohio St LWWL 40-17 . . 35 111 Big Ten #1
2 Georgia WLL 37-22 . . 19 116 SEC (E #3)
4 Marist LL 31-26 . . 180 93 Metro Atl champ (#3)
===> Super Regional 7: Arkansas 7 9 ==> meets 2
at Florida St 2 8
==========================
Region 8 [Swamp I] - Gainesville, FL
------------------ ---------------
N1 * Florida WW W 39-20 10 11 7 119 SEC (E #1)
2 Miami (FL) WLWL 36-20 18 -- 12 115 ACC #5 (Coastal #3)
3 Jacksonville LWL 36-20 . . 50 109 Atl. Sun champ (#3)
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 32-26 . . 121 98 MEAC champ (#1)
Region 8a [East] - Atlanta, GA
---------------- -----------
3 * So. Miss. WW LW 35-23 . . 57 111 Conf.USA #5
1 Georgia Tech WLWWL 35-17-1 16 17 4 119 ACC #4 (Coastal #2)
2 Elon LWL 40-16 30 22 21 115 Southern #1
4 Georgia St LL 39-20 . . 96 104 Colonial champ (#2)
===> Super Regional 8: So. Miss. 9 7 ==> meets 1
at Florida 7 6
==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. There are none missing with an ISR of 113 or above. Some of these stood out in Boyd's rankings, and some were picked because they used to be in the tournament or show the range of teams that make up NCAA Baseball. This (along with the conference rankings I construct) might help show why the NCAA is justified in emphasizing some conferences when selecting more than 1 out of every 5 teams to be in the tournament.
This list of possible teams is of particular interest since the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams ten years ago. Sixteen additional teams should make room for every team with a reasonable chance of winning the tournament, and analysis might answer the perennial question "what do we need to do to get in?" One can compare the thresholds used in past years (where we also have RPI and ISR data) to those used with the expanded field. Teams that exceed the purely objective thresholds in the pseudo-RPI and ISR (and thus merit consideration) are flagged in the table below. However, it is important to note that these numeric scores from computer rating formulae are not the only criteria used by the selection committee, nor should they be the only criteria used.
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here.
Examination of past tournaments suggested that conference finish was
undoubtedly the reason every team with a pseudo-RPI high enough to
make the field strictly by the numbers (those marked with an "*") was
left out by the committee.
This is clearly the case for all such teams this year, since
all of them finished below 0.500 for the season in their conference
or lost their conference tournament.
Simple lesson: no matter how good your conference might be, if you
can't get above 0.500 you don't deserve to be in the tournament.
But is there any good explanation for how 8/10 Big-12 and 8/12 SEC teams
along with 7/12 ACC teams get in while independent Dallas Baptist (RPI 36, ISR 113)
does not? They certainly appear better than Southern Miss
(RPI 57, ISR 111, #5/9 in Conf.USA) on paper, and possibly Kansas
(RPI 52, ISR 115, #5/10 in the Big-12) as well.
Postscript: Southern Miss winning and moving on to the CWS sure
made the committee look good on this one!
Regular season Atlantic Sun champ Florida Gulf Coast (RPI 42, ISR 111)
is sitting home because they have not been in Division I long enough to
be eligible for post-season play. (Thanks to an e-mail correspondent
for that tip.)
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === ===============
X UC Riverside 33-20 . . 77 116 Big West #4
Stanford 30-25 . . 79 114 Pac-10 #6
UCLA 27-29 . . 70 113 Pac-10 #4
Arizona 30-25 . . 64 113 Pac-10 #5
UC Santa Barbara 28-23 . . 84 113 Big West #5
* Dallas Baptist 38-17 . . 36 113 independent #1
San Jose St 40-20 . . 78 113 WAC #1
San Diego 29-25 . . 48 112 West Coast #5
* Auburn 31-25 . . 33 112 SEC (W #5)
New Mexico 37-20 . . 87 112 Mtn West #2
* FL Gulf Coast 36-18 . . 42 111 Atl. Sun #1
Missouri St 32-19 . . 68 111 MoValley #1 (almost top 30)
Long Beach St 25-29 . . 114 109 Big West #6
Tulane 34-25 . . 66 109 Conf.USA #3
* Kentucky 27-26 . . 46 109 SEC (E #5)
Texas Tech 25-32 . . 88 108 Big-12 #7
Duke 35-24 . . 75 107 ACC #7 (Coastal #5)
U LA La 27-30 . . 92 106 Sun Belt #5
Houston 27-31 . . 106 105 Conf.USA #4
Northern Iowa 21-26 . . 201 96 MoValley #7 - dropping BB
Chicago State 3-38 . . 292 76 independent #16
NJ Tech 4-33 . . 298 66 independent #15
UMES 14-42 . . 299 68 MEAC #6
Alabama St 3-27 . . 300 66 SWAC (E #5)
NC Central 5-34 . . 301 66 independent #14
Coppin St 0-29 . . 302 55 MEAC #7
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 115.1
median for regional tournament teams. The lowest ISR of an
at-large team was 110.
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [46].
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============