Current status: Super Regionals over, 8 teams are on to Omaha.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 31 May 2010, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. Again, many thanks to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from his database. We also have the official NCAA RPI available but that information is still only used in my discussion area.
The average (mean) ISR for the field is 113.4,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 10.7.
The median ISR is 116.05.
Special Note: The high median ISR and large standard deviation have a common origin this
season: none of the 32 teams above 116 were left out of the tournament and
there were quite a few extremely low-ranked teams that won the conference
championship game in low-rated conferences.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Kentucky (33), which finished #9 in the SEC (East #4). The lowest pseudo-RPI with an at-large bid was NC State (48), which appears to have gotten in by making it to the ACC championship game. Others that got in with rankings below the natural RPI cutoff below 43 (once automatic bids are accounted for) include New Mexico (46), UC Irvine (45), and Louisiana-Lafayette (44). Further analysis of these seeding decisions is at the bottom of this page.
The highest ISR without a bid was UC Riverside (115.6), followed by Washington (115.3) and Southern Cal (114.2). The lowest ISR with an at-large bid was Elon (109.9), just behind NC State (110.4), along with U-LA-La (112.7) and Virginia Tech (112.7).
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which of the two paired regionals has a top-8 nationally seeded team.
Super Regional Summary:
I order these results in almost the same way the NCAA does (they use 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3). This grouping reflects the pairing in the CWS brackets. The group that starts Super Regional play first (on Friday) will also kick off CWS play.
Super Regional 2: TCU 3 1 4 ===> meets 7
at Texas 1 14 1
Super Regional 7: Vanderbilt 8 6 6
at Florida St 9 2 7 ===> meets 2
Super Regional 3: Miami, FL 2 3
at Florida 7 4 ===> meets 6
Super Regional 6: CSU,Fullertn 4 7 1
at UCLA 3 11 8 ===> meets 3
==========================
Super Regional 1: Arkansas 6 5
at Arizona St 7 7 ===> meets 8
Super Regional 8: Alabama 5 5 6
at Clemson 4 19 8 ===> meets 1
Super Regional 4: So. Carolina 4 10 ===> meets 5
at Cstl Carolina 3 9
Super Regional 5: Oklahoma 2 10 11 ===> meets 4
at Virginia 3 7 0
==========================
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets are my own invention, following the traditional names used decades ago. All series start on Friday, 4 June. The order of the regional listing is by national seed, not by future CWS pairing (which is the 1-8, 5-4, 2-7, 6-3 order used in NCAA brackets) or the seemingly random order resulting from alphabetizing them by the host city.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === ===============
Region 1 [West] - Tempe, AZ
--------------- ---------
N1 * Arizona St WW W 47- 8 1 2 1 135 Pac 10 #1 champ
3 Hawaii WLWL 33-26 . . 76 112 WAC champ (#4)
2 San Diego LWL 36-20 19 15 29 119 West Coast #1 champ
4 UW-Milwaukee LL 33-24 . . 212 96 Horizon champ (#2)
Region 1a [Midwest] - Fayetteville, AR
------------------- ----------------
1 * Arkansas WW LW 40-18 18 19 9 122 SEC #4 (W#2)
2 Washington St WLWWL 34-20 23 24 28 122 Pac 10 #3
3 Kansas St LWL 36-20 . . 39 114 Big 12 #3
4 Grambling LL 22-30 . . 273 82 SWAC champ (W #3)
===> Super Regional 1: Arkansas 6 5
at Arizona St 7 7 ===> meets 8
==========================
Region 2 [Central I] - Austin, TX
-------------------- ----------
N1 * Texas WW W 46-11 5 3 5 127 Big 12 #1
2 Rice LWWL 38-21 25 18 30 119 Conf USA #1
3 U LA-Lafayette WLL 37-20 . . 44 113 Sun Belt #2
4 Rider LL 36-21 . . 139 98 MetroAtl champ (#3)
Region 2a [Central II] - Fort Worth, TX
---------------------- --------------
1 * TCU WW W 46-11 7 6 15 125 Mtn West champ (#1)
2 Baylor LWWL 34-22 . . 35 116 Big 12 #6
3 Arizona WLL 33-22 . . 24 120 Pac 10 #7
4 Lamar LL 35-24 . . 117 105 Southland champ (#7)
===> Super Regional 2: TCU 3 1 4 ===> meets 7
at Texas 1 14 1
==========================
Region 3 [Swamp] - Gainesville, FL
---------------- ---------------
N1 * Florida WW W 42-15 6 4 4 125 SEC #1 (E#1)
2 Fla Atlantic LWWL 35-22 . . 38 113 Sun Belt #1
3 Oregon St WLL 31-22 . . 25 120 Pac 10 #8
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 35-20 . . 101 101 MEAC champ (#1)
Region 3a [Atlantic] - Coral Gables, FL
-------------------- ----------------
1 * Miami, FL WW LW 40-17 11 20 8 120 ACC #4 (Coastal#3)
2 Texas A & M WLWWL 40-19-1 20 22 20 119 Big 12 champ (#4)
4 Dartmouth LWL 26-17 . . 146 97 Ivy champ (#2, Rolfe#1)
3 Florida Intnl LL 36-23 . . 50 112 Sun Belt champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 3: Miami, FL 7 3
at Florida 2 4 ===> meets 6
==========================
Region 4 [Coast I] - Myrtle Beach, SC (host: Coastal Carolina, in Conway)
------------------ ----------------
N1 * Coastal Carol. WLWWW 51- 7 3 5 2 126 Big South champ (#1)
2 C. of Charlstn WW LL 42-17 . . 26 114 Southern #2
4 Stony Brook LWL 29-25 . . 218 94 Amer East champ (#3)
3 NC State LL 38-22 . . 48 110 ACC #7 (Atl #3)
Region 4a [Coast II] - Columbia, SC
-------------------- ------------
1 * So. Carolina WW W 43-15 8 12 18 121 SEC #3 (E#2)
2 Virginia Tech LWWL 38-20 -- 16 34 113 ACC #6 (Coastal#4)
3 The Citadel WLL 42-20 . . 32 113 Southern champ (#1)
4 Bucknell LL 25-33 . . 211 88 Patriot champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 4: So. Carolina 4 10 ===> meets 5
at Cstl Carolina 3 9
==========================
Region 5 [East] - Charlottesville, VA
--------------- -------------------
N1 * Virginia WW LW 47-11 2 1 3 124 ACC #1 (Coastal#1)
3 St. John's (NY) LWWWL 40-18 30 -- 58 110 Big East champ (#4)
2 Mississippi WLL 38-22 24 -- 27 117 SEC #6 (W#3)
4 Va. Commonwlth LL 34-24-1 . . 150 98 Colonial champ (#3)
Region 5a [Plains] - Norman, OK
------------------ ----------
1 * Oklahoma WW W 44-15 13 11 17 121 Big 12 #2
3 N. Carolina WLWL 36-20 . . 21 114 ACC # 9 (Coastal #5)
4 Oral Roberts LWL 35-25 . . 123 104 Summit champ (#2)
2 California LL 29-23 29 -- 37 120 Pac 10 #6
===> Super Regional 5: Oklahoma 2 10 11 ===> meets 4
at Virginia 3 7 0
==========================
Region 6 [Pacific I] - Los Angeles, CA
-------------------- ---------------
N1 * UCLA WW W 43-13 9 8 6 130 Pac 10 #2
3 UC Irvine LWWL 37-19 26 21 45 120 Big West #2
2 LSU WLL 40-20 21 23 22 118 SEC champ (#8, W#5)
4 Kent St LL 39-23 . . 116 107 MAC champ (#2, E#1)
Region 6a [Pacific II] - Fullerton, CA
---------------------- -------------
1 * Cal.St,Fullertn LWWWW 41-15 4 7 10 127 Big West #1 champ
4 Minnesota WW LL 30-28 . . 113 102 Big Ten champ (#1)
3 New Mexico WLL 37-20 . . 46 113 Mtn West #2
2 Stanford LL 31-23 28 -- 36 120 Pac 10 #4
===> Super Regional 6: CSU,Fullertn 4 7 1
at UCLA 3 11 8 ===> meets 3
==========================
Region 7 [Mideast] - Louisville, KY
------------------ --------------
2 * Vanderbilt WLWWW 41-17 17 25 13 121 SEC #5 (E#3)
N1 Louisville WW LL 48-12 12 9 7 121 Big East #1
3 Illinois St LWL 31-22 . . 85 106 Mo Valley champ (#2)
4 St. Louis LL 33-27 . . 206 95 Atl 10 champ (#5)
Region 7a [Northeast] - Norwich, CT (host: Connecticut, in Storrs)
--------------------- -----------
1 * Florida St WW W 42-17 15 10 14 119 ACC champ (#5, Atl#2)
3 Oregon WLWL 38-22 . . 31 123 Pac 10 #5
2 Connecticut LWL 47-14 22 17 23 116 Big East #2
4 Cent. Conn. St LL 33-21 . . 195 91 Northeast champ (#3)
===> Super Regional 7: Vanderbilt 8 6 6
at Florida St 9 2 7 ===> meets 2
==========================
Region 8 [South I] - Atlanta, GA
------------------ -----------
2 * Alabama WLWWW 37-22 . . 12 118 SEC #7 (W#4)
N1 Georgia Tech WW LL 45-13 10 13 11 122 ACC #3 (Coastal#2)
4 Mercer LWL 37-22 . . 131 102 Atl Sun champ (#2)
3 Elon LL 38-22 . . 41 110 Southern #4
Region 8a [South II] - Auburn, AL
-------------------- ----------
2 * Clemson WW LW 38-21 16 -- 19 116 ACC #2 (Atl #1)
1 Auburn WLWWL 40-19 14 14 16 120 SEC #2 (W#1)
3 So. Miss LWL 35-22 27 -- 62 112 Conf USA champ #2
4 Jacksonville St LL 32-24 . . 86 105 OH Valley champ (#2)
===> Super Regional 8: Alabama 5 5 6
at Clemson 4 19 8 ===> meets 1
==========================
RPI Analysis:
This list of possible "bridesmaid" teams below is the basis for my discussion of the RPI-based decisions made by the NCAA. Unlike last year, you could almost predict the tournament lineup based on the pseudo-RPI and conference finish:
Decisive criteria listed by the NCAA selection committee in the past have included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here.
Teams shown with an "*" in the table below would get in if you just counted down from the top without regard conference finish. However, it makes sense to ignore SEC 9th place Kentucky (33) in favor of Sun Belt #2 U LA-Lafayette (44) and Sun Belt #8 Western Kentucky (40) in favor of Big West #2 UC Irvine (45). It is also easy to drop ACC #8 Boston College (43) in favor of ACC #7 North Carolina State (48), because NC State made it to the conference final against Florida State, and certainly SEC #10 Tennessee (47) will stay home.
Looking over the 3 seeds that were not conference champs, it does appear that North Carolina State (RPI #48) was the last team added to the field.
That said, the closest call was probably leaving out Atlantic Sun #1 Florida Gulf Coast (42) in favor of Mountain West #2 New Mexico (46) or NC State. (I believe Gulf Coast was eligible for NCAA Division 1 post-season competition this year after moving up from Div 2 to Div 1 in 2008.) Poor tournament performance, getting knocked out by the #4 and #3 teams in the Atlantic Sun conference, was probably the reason for the decision to ignore Gulf Coast's 1st place regular season finish in that conference.
With that in mind, it was interesting to see that North Carolina (21) was considered good enough over all to make up for its 9th place finish in the ACC. Clearly there is a point where the RPI does make up for a poor conference finish if your conference is good enough. In a similar vein, notice that Pac 10 #7 Arizona (24) and #8 Oregon State (25) also got in. These examples might help predict future tournament bids and seedings.
Finally, Great West conference champ Utah Valley University (161) did not get an automatic bid because that conference is an entirely new conference (having expanded from football to all sports in 2008, but not including baseball until the current 2009-2010 season). Utah Valley's 42 win season looks less impressive when you see they were mostly within a conference that only looks good compared to the MEAC and SWAC.
... RPI analysis is now complete ...
Related information:
Here I provide the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. There are none missing with an ISR of 114 or above.
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === ===============
UC Riverside 32-22 . . 71 116 Big West #3
Washington 28-28 . . 68 115 Pac-10 #9
So California 28-32 . . 65 114 Pac-10 #10
Portland 34-18 . . 93 114 West Coast #2
Fresno St 35-23 . . 77 114 WAC #1
* Kentucky 31-25 . . 33 114 SEC #9 (E#4)
* W. Kentucky 35-23 . . 40 113 Sun Belt #8
Texas St 38-22 . . 51 113 Southland #1
Wichita State 41-19 . . 56 113 Mo Valley #1
Nevada 36-22 . . 119 113 WAC #3
Pacific 31-23 . . 128 112 Big West #4
Tennessee 30-26 . . 47 111 SEC #10 (E#5)
Southeastern LA 40-19 . . 53 111 Southland #3
Liberty 42-19 . . 49 110 Big South #2
* Fla Gulf Coast 38-20 . . 42 110 Atl Sun #1
* Boston College 30-28 . . 43 108 ACC #8 (Atl #4)
Rutgers 30-26 . . 52 107 Big East #6
Georgia Southern 34-24 . . 66 106 Southern #3
Central Mich 36-22 . . 108 105 MAC #1 (W#1)
Dallas Baptist 28-27 . . 133 104 independent #2
Utah Valley 42-17 . . 161 104 Great West #1 champ
Army 28-17 . . 157 96 Patriot #1
Longwood 28-20 . . 166 93 independent #1
Prairie View A & M 12-35 . . 292 74 SWAC #8 (West #5)
NJ Tech 13-44 . . 291 71 Great West #7
Iona 9-40 . . 288 70 Metro Atl #9
UM-BC 9-39 . . 293 70 America East #6
Coppin St 14-33 . . 294 70 MEAC #5
Delaware St 13-36 . . 296 69 MEAC #4
Chicago St 4-52 . . 298 65 Great West #8
Florida A & M 10-31 . . 295 65 MEAC #7
Alabama A & M 17-32 . . 300 64 SWAC #10 (East #5)
Alabama St 13-28 . . 299 64 SWAC #9 (East #4)
UM-ES 8-43 . . 297 64 MEAC #6
NC Central 3-44 . . 301 60 Independent #8
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 116.05
median for regional tournament teams. (There were no teams
in that category this year.) The lowest ISR of an at-large
team was 110.
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up [44].
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============