But will we "run out" anytime soon? The answer is most definitely no. Not because there is a lot of it, but because we will never run out!
To understand why I would make such an incredible statement, one needs to know a little about the mining of petroleum. Most people, thanks to oversimplified high school science books, seem to think oil exists in underground "pockets" that resemble big oil tanks made out of rock. They visualize the pumping of this oil as similar to using a straw to drink a soda, and they expect that one day there will be heard a sucking sound similar to what the straw makes when the soda is all gone -- and the petroleum-driven world will grind to a sudden halt, and we will all dust off our bicycles.
But this is not reality. In reality, oil exists in underground reservoirs diffused throughout the soil and sand. "Pumping" actually involves compelling the oil to flow through the sand to the well, as well as up to the surface. Since oil is thick (kinda like mud or tar sometimes), it is pumped slowly; trying to pump it too fast would result in that sucking sound immediately!
When a new well is drilled, there is lots of oil right around the well, and pumping is easy. In the old days, there were pockets under enough pressure that pumping wasn't necessary, it would come up by itself as a gusher. But as the reservoirs are diminished, the pumping becomes more and more difficult. Each well gets harder and harder to get any oil from. Eventually, the output of each well ceases to be worth the amount of pumping energy necessary to get it, and the well is shut down.
This doesn't mean there's no more oil down there. In fact, there's usually quite a bit left. The pumping is stopped because it is no longer economically viable to pump from that well, not because it has "run out".
Occasionally, technology provides some help. Once, someone discovered that injecting steam into an old well heats the oil and causes it to flow better, allowing more oil to be pumped. But it takes energy to create the steam, so once again the well is shut down when the payoff ceases to justify the costs.
When there is an increase in the cost of oil, it may eventually become worthwhile to reopen these old wells. During the oil embargo when oil suddenly increased in value by a whole bunch, it most definitely was worthwhile -- but it takes time to get a significant number of abandoned oil wells pumping again, and the embargo was so sudden as to cause a temporary but severe shortage. This was precisely the intention. And yes, it can happen again; plan accordingly.
In the long run, oil will get more and more expensive as it becomes more difficult to pump. At some point, it will become economically preferable to use some alternative fuel, such as ethanol derived from corn. When this happens, auto makers will begin to offer models designed to run on the alternative fuel, and stations will offer it at competitive rates. The petroleum-based fuels will still be available for those driving older cars, but will eventually be more expensive to use than the alternatives.
If the transition happens suddenly enough, some people may decide to try to convert their older cars to run on the alternative fuel, but this is not likely to happen on a large scale. More likely, the two fuels will coexist for a decade or more, and all but the collector's cars will be phased out and replaced with new cars in the normal course of car replacement.
This transition will occur naturally, brought on by simple economics, and will require zero impetus from the government. There is absolutely no good reason for government interference in the process; it will eventually happen, and the government trying to postpone it or hurry it will not help matters at all.
After the transition has occurred, we will not be out of petroleum. It will simply have become rare enough that it is no longer used for fuel. Rather, it will be pumped only for its other uses: chemicals, plastics, etc. All of these items will be more expensive than now, but they will be available for eternity. If the reserves ever get really low where it is difficult to find enough oil for these uses, it will be possible to make synthetic substances to replace them.
I provide one reference confirming my contentions about the nature of mining petroleum.Military/National Defense impacts
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Of course, if you have questions or comments, you are welcome to send e-mail to me at palmk@nettally.com .