Some of the RPI analysis remains to be done.
Note that the seed order has been altered to reflect the final standings.
The change to a 64-team tournament, with regionals paired up to form a set of seeded super regionals, required a change in the layout of my table. The core information remains the same.
New readers should consult a separate page that gives some general background information on the records, polls, RPI, ISR, PP, etc information included in the table below. (An "N" indicates a "national" seed.) As usual, the polls and data are from from Monday, 24 May 1999, when the regional pairings and seedings were announced. The PP is based only on regular season games (through 5/18). Again, many thanks to Rick Rollins for the conference standings that make my "etc..." column and a separate analysis of performance grouped by conference possible, and to Boyd Nation for the pseudo-RPI and ISR information generated from Rick's database.
The average ISR for the field is 112.8,
plus or minus a standard deviation of 9.4.
The median ISR is 115.0.
The highest pseudo-RPI ranking without a bid was Georgia Tech with 0.589 (#26, 114 ISR), who lost out to UCLA with 0.540 (#74, 114 ISR), although note that the last at-large seed might have been Rutgers with 0.577 (#37, 106 ISR) and an NCAA spokesman said Coastal Carolina with 0.585 (#30, 111 ISR) was the last team left out of the tournament. See below for other comments.
Note: The NCAA identified the regions only by location, so the region numbering scheme is my own creation, reflecting the seeding of the associated super regional and identifying which regional has a top-8 nationally seeded team.
Super Regional Results:
I have ordered these results the same way the NCAA has been doing this year: reflecting the pairings in the CWS brackets.
Super Regional 1: [1] Wake Forest 2 1
at [N1] Miami 10 8 ==> meets 8
Super Regional 8: [2] Southwestern La 12 1 3
at [N1] Rice 8 10 8 ==> meets 1
Super Regional 4: [2] Oklahoma St 18 7 6 ==> meets 5
at [N1] Baylor 11 17 2
Super Regional 5: [2] Louisiana St 6 5
at [N1] Alabama 13 13 ==> meets 4
------
Super Regional 2: [2] Auburn 2 3
at [N1] Florida St 10 6 ==> meets 7
Super Regional 7: [2] Clemson 3 10 4
at [N1] Texas A&M 20 3 5 ==> meets 2
Super Regional 3: [N1] Ca.St Fullerton 7 11 13 ==> meets 6
at [1] Ohio State 10 5 2
Super Regional 6: [2] Southern Cal 0 3
at [N1] Stanford 1 5 ==> meets 3
Complete Results:
Note: The regional names in square brackets were "officially" determined by Craig Gowens, now and forever the "Commissioner of the SWC". All series start on 28 May. The order here is by seed, not by future CWS pairing.
NCAA Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team Result W L T CB BA RPI ISR PP etc....
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============
Region 1 [Atlantic] - Coral Gables, FL
------------------- ----------------
N1 * Miami(FL) WW W 41-13 1 4 2 121 -2 Independent (#1)
2 Fla Atlantic LWWL 52- 7 15 20 6 117 +3 Trans Am (#1)
3 Fla Internat'l WLL 43-17 . . 41 113 -3 Sun Belt champ (#4)
4 Bethune-Cookman LL 27-29 . . 195 89 -3 MEAC champ (S1)
Region 1a [East II] - Winston-Salem, NC
------------------- -----------------
1 * Wake Forest WW LW 44-13 11 11 3 120 +3 ACC champ (#2)
2 Richmond WLWWL 38-15 . . 22 111 -2 Colonial (#1)
3 Virginia Tech LWL 41-15 . . 43 107 +2 Atl-10 champ (W1)
4 Siena LL 34-20 . . 88 96 +8 Metro Atl champ (N1)
===> Super Regional 1: Wake Forest 2 1
at Miami 10 8 ==> meets 8
==========================
Region 2 [East I] - Tallahassee, FL
----------------- ---------------
N1 * Florida St. WW W 48-12 3 5 1 124 -3 ACC (#1)
2 Providence LWWL 47-14 -- 21 15 109 +4 Big East champ (#3)
3 Jacksonville WLL 40-21 . . 42 111 +1 Trans Am champ (#2)
4 The Citadel LL 41-18 . . 45 109 -2 Southern champ (#1)
Region 2a [South II] - Auburn, AL
-------------------- ----------
2 * Auburn WW LW 43-16 23 13 13 120 +2 SEC (#5 W4)
1 Tulane LWWWL 45-15 19 14 18 119 +1 Conf USA champ (#2)
4 Winthrop WLL 39-21 . . 58 107 +2 Big South champ (#2)
3 N.C. State LL 37-23 . . 29 112 -1 ACC (#6)
===> Super Regional 2: Auburn 2 3
at Florida St 10 6 ==> meets 7
==========================
Region 3 [Mideast II] - South Bend, IN
--------------------- --------------
N1 * Ca.St Fullerton WW W 44-11 4 6 10 126 +1 Big West champ (#1)
4 Michigan LWWL 32-28 . . 71 107 0 Big Ten champ (#4)
2 Notre Dame WLL 42-16 -- -- 24 110 +9 Big East (#1)
3 Creighton LL 38-23 . . 50 112 -2 Mo.Valley (#3)
Region 3a [Mideast I] - Columbus, OH
--------------------- ------------
1 * Ohio State WW W 46-12 13 16 11 116 +5 Big Ten (#1)
3 Mississippi St WLWL 40-19 . . 16 118 -8 SEC (#7, W6)
2 Nebraska LWL 41-16 18 15 40 117 0 Big-12 champ (#5)
4 Bowling Green LL 36-22 . . 98 100 -1 MAC champ (E1)
===> Super Regional 3: Ca.St Fullerton 7 11 13 ==> meets 6
at Ohio State 10 5 2
==========================
Region 4 [Central II] - Waco, TX
--------------------- --------
N1 * Baylor WW W 46-13 10 8 5 127 +2 Big-12 (#2)
2 Minnesota WLWL 44-16 . . 33 115 +3 Big Ten (#2)
4 Eastern Ill. LWL 32-21 . . 99 104 +1 OhioValley champ (#1)
3 Arizona LL 33-21 25 -- 61 116 +2 Pac-10 (#3)
Region 4a [Midwest II] - Wichita, KS
---------------------- -----------
2 * Oklahoma St LWWWW 40-17 20 25 36 117 -5 Big-12 (#4)
1 Wichita St. WW LL 57-12 7 7 7 122 -1 Mo.Valley champ (#1)
3 UCLA WLL 30-29 . . 74 114 -1 Pac-10 (#4)
4 Oral Roberts LL 46-13 26 -- 82 107 -1 Mid-Cont. champ (#1)
===> Super Regional 4: Oklahoma St 18 7 6 ==> meets 5
at Baylor 11 17 2
==========================
Region 5 [South I] - Tuscaloosa, AL
------------------ --------------
N1 * Alabama WW W 46-14 9 9 4 124 +2 SEC champ (#3 W2)
3 Southern Miss. WLWL 38-21 . . 35 115 +4 Conf USA (#3)
2 South Alabama LWL 38-18 27 23 38 115 +2 Sun Belt (#1)
4 Navy LL 27-20-1 . . 166 89 +1 Patriot champ (#2)
Region 5a [Bayou I] - Baton Rouge, LA
------------------- ---------------
2 * Louisiana St WLWWW 37-21-1 17 22 21 118 -1 SEC (#4 W3)
1 East Carolina WW LL 44-14 28 19 9 116 -1 Colonial champ (#2)
4 Southern LWL 28-14 . . 97 97 +2 SWAC champ (W1)
3 NE Louisiana LL 36-20 . . 63 114 +1 Southland (#1)
===> Super Regional 5: Louisiana St 6 5
at Alabama 13 13 ==> meets 4
==========================
Region 6 [West I] - Palo Alto, CA
----------------- -------------
N1 * Stanford WW W 43-13 5 3 17 125 +4 Pac-10 champ (#1)
2 Nevada LWWL 36-18 . . 44 119 -1 Big West (#2)
3 North Carolina WLL 40-16 21 -- 14 115 -1 ACC (#4)
4 Loyola Marymnt LL 33-26 . . 93 112 -2 West Coast champ (W1)
Region 6a [West II] - Los Angeles, CA
------------------- ---------------
2 * Southern Cal WW LW 33-23 14 12 54 118 -3 Pac-10 (#2)
1 Pepperdine WLWWL 43-14 12 17 32 122 +4 West Coast (C1)
3 Va.Commonwealth LWL 40-18 . . 23 111 +3 Colonial (#3)
4 Harvard LL 28-18 . . 101 96 -2 Ivy champ (Rolfe#1)
===> Super Regional 6: Southern Cal 0 3
at Stanford 1 5 ==> meets 3
==========================
Region 7 [Central I] - College Station, TX
-------------------- -------------------
N1 * Texas A&M WLWWW 46-14 6 2 12 125 +2 Big-12 (#1)
2 Long Beach St WW LL 33-23 29 -- 56 117 -3 Big West (#3)
3 Mississippi LWL 33-26 . . 39 116 -2 SEC (#6 W5)
4 Monmouth LL 26-22 . . 162 87 +2 Northeast champ (S1)
Region 7a [Ozark] - Fayetteville, AR
----------------- ----------------
2 * Clemson LWWWW 37-24 16 24 27 114 -3 ACC (#3)
3 SW Missouri St WW LL 36-17 . . 34 116 -1 Mo.Valley (#2)
1 Arkansas WLL 41-21 8 10 19 120 -1 SEC (#1 W1, champ)
4 Delaware LL 35-23 . . 73 98 +2 Amer East champ (#2)
===> Super Regional 7: Clemson 3 10 4
at Texas A&M 20 3 5 ==> meets 2
==========================
Region 8 [Midwest I] - Lubbock, TX
-------------------- -----------
N1 * Rice LWWWW 52-11 2 1 8 125 +1 WAC champ (#1)
2 Texas Tech WW LL 40-15 22 -- 25 121 -2 Big-12 (#3)
4 UW-Milwaukee WLL 30-27 . . 181 95 -4 Midwestern champ (#2)
3 Rutgers LL 37-19 . . 37 106 +1 Big East (#2)
Region 8a [Bayou II] - Houston, TX
-------------------- -----------
2 * Southwestern La WW W 38-22 . . 60 113 -2 Sun Belt (#2)
1 Houston WLWL 38-22 24 18 20 119 -2 Conf.USA (#1)
3 Texas LWL 35-24 . . 31 120 -1 Big-12 (#6)
4 SW Texas St LL 27-30 . . 130 106 +2 Southland champ (#4)
===> Super Regional 8: Southwestern La 12 1 3
at Rice 8 10 8 ==> meets 1
==========================
Related information:
In addition, I include the usual list of "bridesmaid" teams. Several of these were obvious and proposed by many newsgroup readers, others stood out in Boyd's rankings, and some were picked just to placate or annoy regular newsgroup readers. There are a few others above 111 that are not listed.
This list of possible teams is of particular interest with the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams. One can compare the thresholds used last year (where we also have RPI and ISR data) to those used with the expanded field.
RPI analysis ... (NOT YET DONE) ...
link annotated file (also for 1998) ... GT/NCSU, Pac-10 and ASU, SEC E, NE.
Contact Joe Durant?
Decisive criteria included strength of non-conference schedule and performance in the conference tournament, in addition to the overall season performance numbers we tabulate here. For example, reports from the chairman of the NCAA selection committee suggest that Georgia Tech was dropped in favor of North Carolina State in a head-to-head comparison based on tournament play, not a comparison to teams from other conferences.
Overlooked ? (ordered by ISR, records may not be accurate)
----------
Record Polls Boyd Nation
Seed Team W L T CB BA RPI ISR PP etc....
==== =============== ...... ======= == == === === == ===============
X Missouri 37-19 . . 52 116 +2 Big-12 (#7)
X Arizona State 39-21 . . 59 115 -9 Pac-10 (#5)
* Georgia Tech 38-20 30 -- 26 114 +6 ACC (#5)
Hawaii 37-20 . . 67 114 0 WAC (#5)
Washington 33-23 . . 78 113 +4 Pac-10 (#6)
* Florida 31-25 . . 46 112 +1 SEC (#9 E3)
* Louisville 37-19 . . 48 112 +2 Conf USA (#6)
South Carolina 35-23 . . 51 112 0 SEC (#2 E1)
* Coastal Carolina 43-15 . . 30 111 0 Big South (#1)
* Old Dominion 38-17 . . 28 110 0 Colonial (#5)
* Indiana 35-17 . . 47 108 +2 Big Ten (#5)
Ball State 42-18 . . 66 105 -3 MAC (W1)
Hawaii-Hilo 9-37 . . 250 94 +1 Independent (#10)
Maryland-Eastern Shore 7-34 . . 279 63 -1 MEAC (N3)
---------------
X - denotes team with Boyd's computer ranking above the 115.0
median for regional tournament teams. I did not figure out
the winning percentages this year. The lowest at large team
had an ISR of 105 (Rutgers).
* - denotes team with a higher pseudo-RPI than the natural cutoff
for a 64-team tournament after automatic bids are used up.
==== =============== ====== ======= == == === === == ===============
Aside: The University of Maryland - Eastern Shore is included partly because of the curiosity that it managed to finish last in both the pseudo-RPI and the ISR listings but did not finish last in its conference. Coppin State (N4) had a much worse record but ended up at #278 with a 65 ISR. This shows the effect of strength of schedule on the rankings, and possibly that Coppin State was a lucky (+1) team.